Drawdown Stress Simulator

Most investors choose tiers by looking at the upside numbers. Multi-X targets +45% per year base case — sounds great. But the right way to choose a tier is to look at the downside first. The question that matters isn't “how much could this earn me?” — it's “could I hold through the worst weeks without selling?”

The drawdown stress simulator answers that question by replaying five real crypto regimes from the last eight years. Each one was painful. Each one had real investors capitulating at the bottom. The question is: looking at what your portfolio would have done in each regime, would you have held?

If the answer is no, you've picked the wrong tier. The calibration test is psychological, not financial. Drop down a tier until the worst-case number is one you can genuinely stomach.

The 4-gate AAOIFI screening isn't purely about Shariah compliance — it has the side effect of acting as a downside hedge. The categories that fail the screen (riba-bearing lending tokens, perpetual-futures DEXes, leverage-fed memecoins) are also the categories that take the worst losses in every crypto crash.

In 2022, Aave's token fell 90%. Memecoins fell 95%+. Perpetual-futures protocols saw flash-crash cascades on their own platforms. The halal-screened universe avoided every one of those categories — not because the screen anticipated the crash, but because the same structural problems that fail Shariah screens (excessive gharar, riba dependence) also produce fragility under stress.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but the logic is durable. A universe that excludes leverage, gambling-equivalent payoffs, and interest-rate dependence is a less fragile universe under stress.