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Crypto Returns Calculator

Stress-test halal portfolio scenarios.

6 mo1 year10 yr

Choose tier

This input is yours. HalalCrypto does not publish tier return assumptions or forecasts.

Stress scenario

$3072

-$1928

Starting from $5000 · Balanced stress band · net of subscription

Flat market

$4172

-$828

Starting from $5000 · No market move · subscription cost only

Your custom scenario

$4172

-$828

Starting from $5000 · 0% yearly input chosen by you

Subscription cost over 1 year-$828

Calculations use illustrative stress-test assumptions for each halal-screened risk profile. Crypto returns are non-linear and not guaranteed. This is a planning tool, not investment advice. All trades are spot only — your funds never leave your own connected exchange account.

How it works

The math behind the projections

Most crypto returns calculators assume a fixed annual return and call it a day. That's not how this asset class works. Crypto returns are non-linear, regime-dependent, and asymmetric — so a single “average” number is misleading.

This calculator uses three scenarios per tier: a bear case (the system is wrong about market regime), a base case (ordinary participation under the selected risk profile), and a bull case (a strong cycle where the convex framework captures part of the move). Each scenario applies an illustrative annual assumption over your chosen time horizon, then deducts the subscription cost in dollars over that period.

These assumptions are not targets, guarantees, or forecasts. They are stress-test inputs for comparing subscription cost, time horizon, and volatility tolerance. Crypto can lose value rapidly; use this as a planning tool, not a promise.

Tier comparison

Why tier choice matters more than starting capital

One observation that surprises a lot of new users: doubling your starting investment changes your end balance linearly, but moving from Conservative to Multi-X changes it exponentially. Tier choice is a multiplicative decision, not an additive one.

The other side of that coin: Multi-X drawdowns are larger and more frequent. If you're going to be checking your balance every week, Multi-X will likely make you sell at the wrong time. Conservative is calibrated to be quietly held through the noise. Most users discover this the hard way — you're welcome to learn it from a calculator instead.

Conservative

Tightest scenario assumptions

Designed for capital preservation and tighter drawdown control. Best for users who can't tolerate large drawdowns or who are deploying meaningful capital they need to keep.

Moderate

Balanced scenario assumptions

Balanced engine, full halal top-20 universe. Best for users who can hold through 2–4 week drawdown periods and want compound growth.

Multi-X

Widest scenario assumptions

Higher-volatility signal stack on extended halal universe. Best for users who can hold through episodic 25%+ drawdowns and understand asymmetric risk.

What this is not

Honest disclaimers, no fine-print games

This is not a guarantee. It is not investment advice. It is not a forecast. It is a planning tool that applies your own custom scenario assumption, subscription cost, and stress drawdown inputs to a starting investment, so you can inspect illustrative outcomes without treating them as targets.

Crypto can lose 80% of its value in a year. It has done so multiple times in the last decade. Our system caps that downside through hard stop-losses and concentration limits, but it cannot eliminate it. Anyone who promises you guaranteed returns in this asset class is either a fool or a fraud — possibly both.

What we can promise is that every trade is spot, every coin is halal-screened daily, and your funds never leave your own connected exchange account. The rest is the market.

FAQ

Common questions

Where do the scenario assumptions come from?+

They are illustrative stress-test inputs tied to each tier's risk profile. The bear case reflects regime mismatches. The base case reflects ordinary participation. The bull case reflects strong-cycle behaviour with convex sizing. None of them is a target or forecast.

Why subtract the subscription cost?+

Because that’s honest. Many calculators ignore fees. Yours doesn’t. The subscription is a flat monthly fee, not a percentage of assets, so the impact diminishes as your portfolio grows.

Can I lose money on Conservative too?+

Yes. Even with hard stop-losses and a blue-chip universe, a sustained bear market can produce a negative outcome over short periods. The bear scenario in this calculator reflects that reality.

Why is the time horizon capped at 10 years?+

Beyond 10 years, compounding assumptions stop being meaningful in crypto — the asset class itself is younger than that, and tier methodologies will evolve. We don’t want to imply we know what 20 years looks like, because nobody does.

Can I use this for portfolio planning across multiple tiers?+

Yes — run the calculator once per tier with the slice of capital you’d allocate to each, then sum the outcomes. Splitting capital across tiers is a common approach.

Want to act on these numbers?

Pick a tier and start in five minutes

The bot trades the same halal universe this calculator projects. Spot only, on your own connected exchange account.

Compare the three tiers →